No ke aha i piʻi ai ka Tungsten Carbide a me ka Cobalt Powders i ke kumukūʻai i kēia makahiki?

I. Cobalt Powder Frenzy: DRC Export Halt + Global New Energy Rush

1. ʻOki ʻo DRC i ka 80% o ka lako kobalt honua

Na ka Lepupalika Demokarata o Congo (DRC) lako78% o ka cobalt o ka honua. I Pepeluali 2025, ua hoʻolaha koke ʻia a4 - mahina ka hoʻokuʻu ʻia ʻana o ka cobalt raw material, e hōʻemi ana i ka lako cobalt honua e 26% (e like me ka 30,000 - ton ka pōkole mahina). Ua kū ka poʻe hoʻoheheʻe honua i kahi "pilikia waiwai," me ka emi ʻana o nā helu hana i 58%. Ua pani ʻia nā ʻoihana liʻiliʻi - a i - me ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana i ka pauka cobaltpiʻi nā kumukūʻai ma ¥3,500/ton i hoʻokahi mahina- ka lele nui loa mai ka makahiki 2024.

2. Hoʻomaka ka ʻenehana hou a me nā huahana 3C i kahi hoʻopaʻapaʻa Cobalt, hoʻokahe i nā waihona

Ua hoʻonohonoho ʻia nā kūʻai kaʻa kaʻa hou honua e piʻi i 25% i 2025. I kēia manawa,ʻO nā ʻoni lithium ternary (no nā EV) a me nā ʻāpana kobalt - acid (no nā mea hana 3C)ke hoʻonui nei i ka koi cobalt, a ua piʻi ma mua o 150,000 tons. Hoʻokahi manawa e lawa ai no nā lā 45, hoʻopaʻa ʻia ka pauka cobalt i kēia manawamau lā 28 wale nō- kahi lako - koi imbalance e hoʻonui ana i nā kumukūʻai.

3. Hoʻopaʻa a me nā ʻaelike lōʻihi e hana i kahi Spiral kumukūʻai

ʻO ka pāpā hoʻokuʻu ʻana o DRC i hoʻāla i ka makaʻu. Hoʻopili nā mea kālepa ma luna o 30% o nā lako, e hoʻonui ana i nā kumukūʻai wahi i 12%. No ka pale ʻana i nā haʻalulu e hiki mai ana, nā mea hana pākaukaukau inoa ʻia nā ʻaelike lōʻihi 3 mahina ma mua, e hana ana i nā kumukūʻai lōʻihi he 8% kiʻekiʻe ma mua o kahi. Ua hana kēia i ka pōʻaiapuni:piʻi kūʻai → hoʻopaʻa hou aku → kumu kūʻai kiʻekiʻe aʻe.

II. ʻO Tungsten Carbide Surge: Nā Mines Global Paʻa + Nā ʻāpana e ulu mai ana

1. ʻOki ʻana a me ka pani ʻana i ka lako ʻo Cripple Tungsten

Ma luna o 60% o ka tungsten honua e hele mai mai kahi ʻāpana kī hoʻokahi. I ka makahiki 2025, ua ʻoki ʻia nā quota mining a puni e 6.45%, a ua pani ʻia ka 30% o nā mines liʻiliʻi ma muli o nā lula kaiapuni. ʻO ke kumukūʻai o ka ʻeleʻele tungsten concentrate (raw material)ua loaʻa iā ¥172,000/ton(kahi moʻolelo kiʻekiʻe). Ma Iune, ua piʻi aʻe ke kumukūʻai o ka pauka tungsten carbide¥364/kg.

2. Nā kiʻi kiʻi kiʻi, Defence, a me nā Drones e alakaʻi i ka makemake pahū

ʻAʻole ʻo Tungsten carbide wale nō no ka ʻoki ʻana i nā mea hana!Uea tungsten Photovoltaic (me> 14% komo honua)ke ulu nui nei, me ka holo ʻole ʻana o nā ʻoihana alakaʻi "nā laina hana hana miliona". Ke kāʻili nei nā ʻoihana pale (nuclear fusion) a me nā ʻoihana drone i ka tungsten carbide, me kēia mau ʻāpana ʻekolu.no ka 40% o ka noi hou- hoʻokuʻu i nā mākeke i ka pō.

3. Hoʻomaka nā mana hoʻokuʻu aku i kahi hoʻopaʻa waiwai honua

ʻO ka tungsten nui - nā lāhui e lawe aku nei i hoʻokomo i nā lula "hoʻokahi - ʻae - no - kauoha". Makaʻu i ka nele, nā mea kūʻai aku ma wahoua hoʻomaka i ka hoarding 6 mahina ma mua, e koi ana i nā kumukūʻai honua 13% ma luna o nā pae kūloko. I ka Q1 2025, ua lele nā ​​kumukūʻai tungsten carbide export 45%, a ʻo nā kauoha o nā ʻāina ʻē he 35% o ke kūʻai aku - ua hoʻohui ʻia nā koi haole i ka wahie i ke ahi.

III. E piʻi mau ana nā kumukūʻai? Pehea e pane ai nā ʻoihana?

1. Pōkole - Kau: High Volatility as Gaps Persist

• ʻO ka pauka Cobalt: E mau ana ka papa hoʻokuʻu aku o DRC a hiki i ka Q3 2025, e hana ana i kahi ākea honua he 32,000 tons. E lele ana nā kumukūʻai ma waena¥260–¥280/kg.
• ʻO ka pauka Tungsten Carbide: Me ka 15,000 - tons raw material gap and peak photovoltaic demand, nā kumukūʻai e hoʻāʻo¥380/kg.

2. Ka lōʻihi - Kau: He heihei ma waena o ka neʻe ʻana a me ka hana hou

• Kobalta: Ke hoʻololi nei nā ʻoihana i ka hana i Indonesia (me nā mea pāʻani kiʻekiʻe ke kūkulu nei i nā mea kanu). I ka makahiki 2026, hiki i ka mana hou ke hoʻomāmā i nā pilikia.
• Tungsten Carbide: E makaala nomea ʻoki kalapona silika(ua hoʻololi i ka 20% o ka tungsten carbide). Pono nā ʻoihana e pivot i nā huahana kiʻekiʻe (e laʻa, nano - grade tungsten carbide, e hoʻonui i ka loaʻa kālā ma 50%).

3. Nā Kūlana no ke Ola: Hoʻolako Paʻa + Hoʻonui Tech

• Pōkole – Kau: E hoʻopaʻa i nā lako me nā ʻaelike lōʻihi a i ʻole e hoʻohana i nā wā e hiki mai ana e pale i nā pilikia kumukūʻai.
• Wā lōʻihi: E hoʻokomo i ka R&D no nā huahana kiʻekiʻe (e laʻa, kiʻekiʻe - maʻemaʻe cobalt no nā semiconductor, tungsten no ka hui nuklea). E hoʻohana i ka ʻenehana e lanakila ai i nā pilikia koʻikoʻi.

Ke alakaʻi ʻia nei kēia piʻi kumukūʻainā kulekele kūloko, koi honua, a me nā pāʻani kapikala. No nā ʻoihana ma ka honua holoʻokoʻa, ʻo ka kūleʻa ʻo ia ka hoʻomaopopo ʻana "no ke aha e paʻa ai nā lako" a "ʻo wai ka mea e kūʻai hou aku" - a laila e hoʻopaʻa i nā kaulahao lako a i ʻole ka wikiwiki ʻana i ka hana hou. A laila hiki iā lākou ke holomua i kēia ʻino waiwai.